Into the Future

Into The Future...

By Udo Gollub at Messe Berlin, Germany 

I just went to the Singularity University summit.
Here are the key points I gathered.

Rise and Fall: In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they were bankrupt.  What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years  and most people don't see it coming.  

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?   Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975.  The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law.  So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years.  

This will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, self-driving and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.  

Software and operating platforms will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool. They don't own any cars, but they are now the biggest taxi company in the world. 

Airbnb is the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: 

Computers will become exponentially better in understanding the world. 

This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.  

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs because of IBM Watson. So if you are studying law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer generalist lawyers in the future; only specialists will be needed.

You can get legal advice, (for more or less basic stuff), within seconds, with 90% accuracy, compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.

Watson already helps nurses diagnose cancer, four times more accurately than doctors. 

Facebook now has pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. 

By 2030, computers will have become more intelligent than humans. 

Cars: 

In 2018 the first self-driving cars will be offered to the public. 

Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.  

You won't want to own a car anymore. 

You will call a car on your phone; it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.

You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. 

Our kids may never get a driver’s license and may not own a car. 

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for our future needs.  

We can transform former parking spaces into parks.  

At present, 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.  We now have one accident every 100,000 km. With autonomous driving, that will drop to one accident in 10 million km.  That will save a million lives each year.

Electric cars will become mainstream around and after 2020. Cities will be cleaner and much less noisy because all cars will run on electricity, which will become much cheaper.  

Most traditional car companies may become bankrupt by taking the evolutionary approach and just building better cars; while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary approach and build a ‘computer on wheels’.  

I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi. They are terrified that insurance companies will have massive trouble, because without accidents, the insurance will become 100 times cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear. 

Real estate values based on approximates to work-places, schools, etc. will change, because if you can work effectively from anywhere or be productive while you commute, people will move out of cities to live in more rural surroundings.

Solar energy production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but only now is having a big impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil fuel energy. The price for solar will drop so much that almost all coal mining companies will be out of business by 2025.

Water  for all:

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant purified water. We don't have scarce water in most places; we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if everyone can have as much clean water as they want, for virtually no cost.   

Health: 

The Tricorder X  price will be announced this year. A medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that  works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and your breath. It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly all diseases. It will be cheap, so in a few years, everyone on this planet will have access to world class, low cost medicine.  

3D printing: 

The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within last 10 years.  In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started printing 3D shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D-printed in remote airports. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities.  You can then 3D scan your feet and print your own perfect shoe at home. 

In China, they have already 3D-printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D-printed.

Business opportunities:

If you think of a niche you want to enter, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” And if the answer is yes, then work on how you can make that happen sooner. If it doesn't work via your phone, forget the idea.And any idea that was designed for success in the 20th century is probably doomed to fail in the 21st century. 

70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.

Work:

There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear that there will be enough new jobs in such a short time. 

Agriculture: 

There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. 

Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their fields instead of working in them all day. 

Aeroponics and hydroponics will need much less water. 

The first veal produced in a petri dish is now available. It will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018.  Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces are used for rearing cattle. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. It contains more protein than meat.It will be labelled as an “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects – even purified ones).

Apps:

There is already an app called “moodies” which can tell the mood you are in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you (or your ‘friend’, business associate) are lying.  

Currencies:

Many currencies will be abandoned. Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the future default reserve currency.

Longevity:

Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span was 79 years, now it is 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than a one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way beyond 100.

Education:

The cheapest smartphones already sell at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means everyone will have much the same access to world class education. 

Every child can use Khan Academy for everything he needs to learn at schools in First World countries. Further afield, the software has been launched in Indonesia and will be released it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this summer. The English app will be offered free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

WELCOME TO THE FUTURE TODAY!

Little Honest Johnny

My Favorite Animal

Our teacher asked what my favorite animal was, and I said, "Fried chicken."

She said I wasn't funny, but she couldn't have been right, because everyone else laughed.

My parents told me to always tell the truth. I did. Fried chicken is my favorite animal. 

I told my dad what happened and he said my teacher was probably a member of PETA. He said they love animals very much.

I do, too. Especially chicken, pork and beef.

Anyway, my teacher sent me to the principal's office.

I told him what happened, and he laughed, too. Then he told me not to do it again.

The next day in class my teacher asked me what my favorite live animal was. 

I told her it was chicken. She asked me why, so I told her it was because you could make them into fried chicken.

She sent me back to the principal's office.

He laughed, and told me not to do it again.

I don't understand. My parents taught me to be honest, but my teacher doesn’t like it when I am.

Today, my teacher asked me to tell her what famous military person I admired most. 

I told her, "Colonel Sanders."

Guess where I am now… 

The Original North Americans. And we've brought Civilization to the New World?

I am reading a very interesting book entitled
Heretics and Heroes. . .
How Renaissance Artists and Reformation
Priests Created Our World.

I'm at a part right now, where Columbus has discovered the new world, and is writing back to the king and queen of Spain, Ferdinand and Isabella, and describing to them the indigenous people that he has encountered at the islands he has landed on. He wrote,

"They traded with us and gave us everything they had with great Goodwill. They took great delight in pleasing us. They are very gentle, without knowledge of what is evil. Nor do they murder or steal. Your highnesses can believe that in all the world, there can be no better people."

My Question: what on earth happened???? I guess I might ask, figuratively and literally, "what in God's Name have we created?"
Is Civilization the corrupting influence? How is it possible to go from that description to what we have today?

There is left no genetic trace of that people today in the Bahamas. Among the "sporting activities" of the new Spanish arrivals were "baby throwing for headsmashing" (sort of bowling with infants) and also "body slicing" (seeing who could cut a person in half with only one swing of the blade). Both sports, along with others, didn't seem to work out well for population propagation of the natives.

"A man who is warm, cannot feel the pain of a man who is cold"   Alexander Solzhenitsyn

An Open Letter to Colin Kaepernick

By Chris Amos, a retired Norfolk Police Officer wrote the following: An Open Letter to Colin Kaepernick 

Dear Colin, Guess you have been pretty busy these last few days. For the record I don’t think any more or less of you for not standing for the National Anthem. Honestly, I never thought that much about you, or any professional athlete for that matter, to begin with. I’ve read your statement a few times and want you to know I am one of the reasons you are protesting. You see I am a retired police officer that had the misfortune of having to shoot and kill a 19-year-old African American male. And just like you said, I was the recipient of about $3,000 a month while on leave which was a good thing because I had to support a wife and three children under 7-years-old for about 2 months with that money. Things were pretty tight because I couldn’t work part time. Every police officer I’ve ever known has worked part-time to help make ends meet. 

You know Colin the more I think about it the more we seem to have in common. I really pushed myself in rehab to get back on the street, kind of like you do to get back on the field. You probably have had a broken bone or two and some muscle strains and deep bruising that needed a lot of work. I just had to bounce back from a gunshot wound to the chest and thigh. Good thing we both get paid when we are too banged up to “play”, huh? We both also know what it’s like to get blindsided. You by a 280- pound defensive end, ouch! Me, by a couple of rounds fired from a gun about 2 feet away, into my chest and thigh. We also both make our living wearing uniforms, right? You have probably ruined a jersey or two on the field of play. I still have my blood stained shirt that my partner and paramedics literally ripped off my back that cold night in January. Fortunately, like you I was given a new one. Speaking of paramedics aren’t you glad the second we get hurt trainers and doctors are standing by waiting to rush onto the field to scoop us up. I’m thankful they get to you in seconds. It only took them about 10 minutes to get to me. By the grace of God, the artery in my thigh didn’t rupture or else 10 minutes would have been about 9 minutes too late. We also have both experienced the hate and disgust others have just because of those uniforms we wear. I sure am glad for your sake that the folks who wear my uniform are on hand to escort you and those folks that wear your uniform into stadiums in places like Seattle! 

I guess that’s where the similarities end Colin. You entertain for a living, I and almost 800,000 others across this country serve and protect. Are there some bad apples within my profession? Absolutely and they need to be identified and fired or arrested! But you know what, the vast majority do the right thing, the right way, for the right reason. Did I mention that seconds before I was shot, an elderly African American gentleman walking down the sidewalk, turned to my partner and I as we rode past and said, “Get them.” Get who you ask? The thugs terrorizing an otherwise good and decent neighborhood, home to dozens of good, decent African American families trying to raise those families in communities not protected by gates and security guards. No these folks and families depend on America’s Law Enforcement Officers. 

Colin I have buried 7 friends, killed in the line of duty and three others who have committed suicide. I have attended more funerals than I care to remember of neighboring departments who have lost officers in the line of duty, during my career. Law Enforcement Officers with different backgrounds, upbringings, and experiences united by their willingness to answer the call to protect and serve their fellow citizens. 

Colin I am sorry for the endorsement deals you may lose and the dip in jersey sales, but please know you will NEVER lose what these men and women and their families have lost. And so whether you stand or sit during the National Anthem or not means very little to me. As for me and the men and women on whose team I was privileged to serve, we will put on our ballistic vests, badge, and gun, kiss our loved one’s goodbye, for some tragically for the last time, and out into a shift of uncertainty we will go. We will continue to protect and continue to serve and we will be standing at attention Colin, not just for the playing of our National Anthem, but far more importantly for the playing of Taps.

Status of Social Security and Medicare July 2017

A reform commission in 1983, led by Alan Greenspan, assured us that Social Security would be well-financed for 75 years. But in 2016, we're already massively short.

The Social Security and Medicare Trustees reports, released last month, came and went faster than a bad sitcom. One day they were news. The next day no one remembered, a casualty of the Brexit vote.
But those reports are much more important for Americans than the Brexit vote. Retired, working or still in school, you should be concerned. Two massive, vital and successful government programs are in trouble. They are in trouble today. They will be in more trouble tomorrow.
We get mixed messages about this from politicians. Some worry. But most play the role of reassuring uncle. Those tell us that (a) everything is fine for the next 10 years, and (b) that the Social Security Trust Fund will last until 2034, just like last year. The Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund will last until 2028, two years shorter than last year.
That's pretty far away, so the news fades. Don't worry, be happy.
But we've got a problem, now. These reports aren't beach reading, but you can find where the rubber meets the road if you know where to look. One place is in the Medicare Trustees Report. It is called "Appendix F: Medicare and Social Security Trust Funds and the Federal Budget.”the real meat is in table V.F1. on Page 212.
This year, trust accounting shows that Social Security and Medicare have a combined surplus of $17.1 billion. Just above that, you'll see the federal budget accounting. It shows that in spite of employment taxes, taxes on Social Security benefits, trust fund interest and premiums for Medicare B and D, these programs were short $354.5 billion. Their cash shortage represented 80 percent of the entire federal deficit for 2015. All other government programs, after tax collections, operated at a loss of $83.9 billion.
Just to be clear, $354.5 billion of the money spent providing Social Security and Medicare benefits in 2015 had to be borrowed. That $354.5 billion represents 23 percent of total spending on those programs. That qualifies Social Security and Medicare as elephants in the room. Today.
In 2004, the first year that Appendix F appeared in the Medicare Trustees Report, the combined trust surplus was $163.7 billion. The federal budget shortfall was a mere $18.5 billion, even though three-fourths of the cost of Medicare insurance is paid out of general revenues.
The 75-year Social Security deficit is a big deal. The Trustees Report finds that the deficit for financing the program is 2.75 percent of payroll - if the tax increase went into effect immediately. That's a 22.2 percent increase over the current old age and disability tax for the 94 percent of all workers who earn less than the Social Security wage base maximum of $118,000 a year. This is the fastest-rising tax most Americans have paid during their working lives, so increasing it to avoid a benefits crisis won't happen easily.
More important, the 22.2 percent increase probably won't be enough. Remember, the Social Security reform commission of 1983, led by Alan (See-No-Bubbles) Greenspan, assured us that Social Security would be well financed for 75 years. Now, only 33 years later, we're already massively short.
Could the shortfall be eliminated some other way? Sure. All we need to do is die younger.
And the Medicare figures aren't real, either. The most important statement in the Medicare Trustees Report doesn't appear until the very end, on Page 260. There, Chief Actuary Paul Spitalnic offers his statement of actuarial opinion. He declares that medical costs are likely to rise faster than mandated by law. He writes:
"Absent an unprecedented change in health care delivery systems and payment mechanisms, the prices paid by Medicare for most health services will fall increasingly short of the cost of providing such services. If this issue is not addressed by subsequent legislation, it is likely that access to, and quality of, Medicare benefits would deteriorate over time."

Rome is burning. Will the Infantile Vulgarian or the Wicked Witch talk about this before November? Not a chance. Don't worry, be happy.

Black fathers matter! All fathers matter

This is a very interesting video from a speaker I've never heard before.   The data is startling.   Alarming.  

And it's frustrating because I don't know anything I personally can do to reverse the course.  Nor do I see that anyone else is trying.   But it is significant to me that more than half of any solution to a problem, is in first realizing the causes of the problem.

Black Fathers Matter Video.   Click here to watch.

I am a veteran. Some would say I am mentally ill.

Dianne Feinstein: "All vets are mentally ill in some way and government should prevent them from owning firearms." 

She said that on Thursday in a meeting in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee.... And the quote below from the LA Times is priceless. Sometimes even the L.A. Times gets it right.

Kurt Nimmo: "Senator Feinstein insults all U.S. Veterans as she flails about in a vain attempt to save her anti-firearms bill."

Quote of the Day from the Los Angeles Times: 

"Frankly, I don't know what it is about California , but we seem to have a strange urge to elect really obnoxious women to high office. I'm not bragging, you understand, but no other state, including Maine, even comes close. When it comes to sending left-wing dingbats to Washington, we're Number One. There's no getting around the fact that the last time anyone saw the likes of Barbara Boxer, Dianne Feinstein, Maxine Waters, and Nancy Pelosi, they were stirring a cauldron when the curtain went up on Macbeth. The four of them are like jackasses who happen to possess the gift of blab. You don't know if you should condemn them for their stupidity or simply marvel at their ability to form words."

Columnist Burt Prelutsky,  Los Angeles Times

you shouldn't be doing background checks on new hires!

I read the Boston Globe everyday for the news and to give me the liberal brain-food perspective for my left-leaning/right-leaning/paradoxical mind.  I found this article interesting a few weeks ago.  Or maybe disturbing is more the emotion?

HUD, which is not known for being a bastion of operational efficiency, under any leadership for the past 20 years, and especially under Julian Castro (highly regarded as a VP prospect for this year) has come out with guidelines now, that say that as a landlord, you cannot make a requirement for no criminal record, as a condition of renting.

The HUD logic goes, that since a disproportionate share of the adult population with a criminal records are blacks or Hispanics, that to make this a condition of refusal to rent if having a criminal record, is . . in itself  . . .racial discrimination.   The continued logic is that, since more blacks or Hispanics as a % of the population, might have criminal records than whites, then, more lacks or Hispanics than whites will be denied housing.

No landlord who is receiving any government subsidized rent, can make this a condition now.    And while private landlords may still make this a condition, they will be opening themselves up for a federal lawsuit by the denied applicant, on the grounds of a civil rights violation.

I am not a landlord.   I do not have to worry about being impacted by this.  It does however, in my mind, provide an insight into how we might see hiring regulations influenced in the future.   I could easily see that this Washington logic could be extended to say that employers could no longer screen employment applicants for a criminal record, since to do so would racial discrimination.   Whether it is policy now, or not, though, I think it does not bode well for any company that currently does criminal background investigations on new hires.    The precedent has been set and the line drawn in the sand.     Checking backgrounds on an applicant for criminal records is an invitation to a civil rights law suit.

that's my ideas.    take them for what it's worth.   If you have any friends/associates who are in the rental business, you might want to forward this to them?

Bud

ps.   HUD also now has a policy that no employee of HUD can be terminated for any reason except for behavior where they were convicted criminal behavior by a court of law.   duh!   Any job performance failure must just be given a reprimand.  But no person hired by HUD can be screened for past criminal behavior.A

Love as a Verb

The following is a letter I wrote to a dear friend who was not feeling loved by someone that is close to us both.   I have deleted the people's names and substituted with *****.


Dear ******

Its a very big irritant to me that for most people the word Love is a noun or adjective or adverb and they throw around the word so freely.

But Jesus usual expression of the word was as a verb.

So bear with me a moment as i try to illustrate my heart here.

Imagine that luv (l u v) is love that we feel for a friend.

And luve (l u v e) is the feeling we feel for someone dear to us like a mate or child or close friend.

And Love is a verb TOWARD any of the above people?

I am spelling them differently for distinction in definition.

Well. Most of the time when those people above say "i love you Bud/Poppy", what they are really saying is "i luv you or i luve you and it makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside and i would sure be sad if something happened to you".

But a very few people in our lives don't have to express the feeling, but they LOVE us as a verb. They DO their love TO us.

Jesus gave the ultimate LOVE VERB example when He said "there is no greater Love than that a man lay down his life for another"

I don't think He was just saying that in a literal sense. But also in a figurative sense too.

I.e. " I am going to LOVE someone by making the needs of their life more important than my own"

This is difficult to do. And with most people we come in contact with impossible. But the people i describe above "could" LOVE VERB us, because they (more than most) could be in a position to know our needs and favor us.  But they don't. Because it"s 1. Time consuming 2. Inconvenient 3. Requires investment of their life into someone else's and they are simply selfish. 4. Might require follow up?

Now. My children luv me. They luve to see me.  They feel warm and fuzzy when we are together.

They would hurt and be sad if i died.

But what i need from them is for them to LOVE VERB me and let me be LOVE VERBING them.

Ditto with your *****.

50% ditto with *****  (although not 100% because he often does LOVE VERB me but he's very very very busy with 100 business responsibilities and "churchy/religious" activities.

**** LOVE VERBS me when he can fit me in with the other stuff that is important in his routine.

Nevertheless, i am very grateful for his Love when he can show it and i am very blessed that he gives me opportunities to Love him.

I try to Love ***** as often as i can. And certainly i always Luv and Luve him. But to LOVE VERB someone you really have to stay connected to them. ***** is at a place in his life where he would be happy for me to Love him all i will, but his domestic relationship is going to keep him from LOVE VERBING anyone except ******.

So frankly i don't Love him as much as i could because i need a connection that he cant give his half to? 

That "connectedness" does not require a daily or even constant or frequent occasion. It just means you find reason to be there for another when they are in need, and then to "prefer" their needs above your own

My own kids are not connected to me.  But you always find time to be.  And for that i am very very very grateful.

Thank you for feeling luv FOR

me. Thank you for feeling luve FOR me.

And most of all thank you for LOVING me.

I Luv You. I Luve You.

But greatest of these is that:

I LOVE YOU today and anytime i can

In the USA, 1 private sector employed person takes care of themselves plus 2 others

125,000,000 private sector

  50,000,000 unemployed

  38,000,000 retired

  73,000,000 aged 18 and under

  20,000,000 full time college students

    6,000,000  federal state and local government, education, and armed forces.

 

Totals  312,000,000 people.   (that's pretty close)

 

If I make some general but conservative assumptions that the 125 million private sector employed people are married to 10 million of the unemployed, and have 23 million of the kids under the age of 18 and 5 million of the kids in college that they are providing for from their take home pay, then

 

the 125,000,000 private sector employees  take care of ourselves, maybe our spouse (maybe not if she works too), and 23 million kids and 5 million kids in college.

 

That means then that we have to pay enough in taxes to pay the salaries of the 6 million gov folks,  and we have to pay benefits to take care of the 50 million unemployed, the 38 million retirees, 50 million welfare kids under age 18,

 

So . . . . 125,000,000 private sector employees and if they make enough to pay taxes,  are providing from their net pay for 163,000,000 people, including themselves, and their taxes have to take care of about 150 million other people.

 

Sheesh

A Canoe race between Toyota and GM

In a fairy tale dream, a Japanese company (Toyota) and an American company (General Motors) decided to have a canoe race on the Missouri River.    Both teams practiced long and hard to reach their peak performance before the race.

On the big day, the Japanese won by a mile.

The Americans, very discouraged and depressed, decided to  investigate the reason for the crushing defeat.  A management team made up of senior management was formed to investigate and recommend appropriate action.

Their conclusion was the Japanese had 8 people paddling and 1 person steering, while the American team had 7 people steering and 2 people paddling.

Feeling a deeper study was in order, American management hired a consulting company and paid them a large amount of money for a second opinion.

They advised, of course, that too many people were steering the boat, while not enough people were paddling.

Not sure of how to utilize that information, but wanting to prevent another loss to the Japanese, the paddling team's management structure was totally reorganized to 4 steering supervisors, 2 area steering superintendents and 1 assistant superintendent steering manager.

They also implemented a new performance system that would give the 2 people paddling the boat greater incentive to work harder.  It was called the 'Rowing Team Quality First Program,' with meetings, dinners and free pens for the paddlers.  There was discussion of getting new paddles, canoes and other equipment, extra vacation days for practices, and bonuses.  The pension program was trimmed to 'equal the competition' and some of the resultant savings were channelled into morale boosting programs and teamwork posters.

The next year the Japanese won by two miles.

Humiliated, the American management laid off one paddler, halted development of a new canoe, sold all the paddles, and cancelled all capital investments for new equipment.  The money saved was distributed to the Senior Executives as bonuses.
The next year, try as he might, the lone designated paddler was unable to even finish the race (having no paddles), so he was laid off for unacceptable performance, all canoe equipment was sold and the next year's racing team was out-sourced to India.

Sadly, the End.

Here's something else to think about: GM has spent the last thirty years moving all its factories out of the US, claiming they can't make money paying American wages.

TOYOTA has spent the last thirty years building more than a dozen plants inside the US.   The last quarter's results:
TOYOTA makes 4 billion in profits while GM racks up 9 billion in losses.

GM folks are still scratching their heads, and collecting bonuses...

Conrad Hilton. Man of Prayer. Man of dreams

The Greatest of Them All

1931 was a long and boring year. The stock market crash of 1929 plunged America into the depths of the Great Depression, and most businesses struggled to stay afloat. Among the struggling businessmen was a hotelier named Conrad Hilton. Americans weren’t traveling, and hotels were suffering. Hilton was borrowing money from a bellhop so he could eat.

It was during those difficult days of the Depression that Hilton came across a photograph of the Waldorf Astoria in New York City. The Waldorf was the holy grail of hotels with six kitchens, two hundred chefs, five hundred waiters, and two thousand rooms. It even had its own private hospital and railroad. In retrospect, Hilton observed that 1931 was “an outrageous time to dream.” But the economic crisis didn’t keep him from dreaming big, praying hard, or thinking long.

Hilton clipped the photograph of the Waldorf out of the magazine and wrote across it, “the greatest of them all.” Then he placed the photograph under the glass top of his desk. Every time Hilton sat down at his desk, his dream was staring him in the face.

Nearly two decades came and went. America emerged from the Great Depression and entered the Second World War. The big band era gave way to bebop. And the baby boom began. All the while, Hilton kept circling the Waldorf. Every time he walked by the Waldorf, he tipped his hat in deference to his dream.

Hilton acquired an impressive portfolio of hotels, including the Roosevelt in New York City and the Mayflower in Washington, DC, but the Queen, as he called the Waldorf, eluded him. Several attempts to purchase the hotel failed, but Hilton kept circling. Finally, on October 12, 1949, eighteen years after drawing a circle around his dream, Hilton made his move. He purchased 249,024 shares of the Waldorf Corporation and crowned his collection of hotels with the Queen.

How did he do it?

Well, Hilton certainly possessed his fair share of business acumen and negotiating prowess. He was a hardworking visionary with a lot of charisma. But the true answer is revealed in his autobiography. It’s the answer he learned from his mother who had prayed circles around her son. In Hilton’s own words, “My mother had one answer for everything. Prayer!”

When Conrad was a young boy, his horse, Chiquita, died. He was devastated and demanded an answer. His mother’s answer was the answer to everything: “Go and pray, Connie... Take all your problems to Him. He has answers when we don’t.” That lesson was not lost on him as a young boy or as an old man. For eighteen long and boring years, Hilton worked like it depended on him and prayed like it depended on God. Then his persistence paid off.

The final section of Hilton’s autobiography is titled “Pray Consistently and Confidently.” Here Hilton provides a succinct summary of his approach to business — essentially his approach to everything in life: “In the circle of successful living, prayer is the hub that holds the wheel together. Without our contact with God we are nothing. With it, we are ‘a little lower than the angels, crowned with glory and honor.’ ”

The next time you stay in a Hilton, remember that long before it was bricks and mortar, it was a bold prayer. It was a long shot, a long thought. But if you pray like it depends on God and work like it depends on you for eighteen years, anything is possible. I particularly love the fact that Hilton tipped his hat to the Waldorf whenever he walked by. It was a gesture of humility, of respect, of confidence.

When you dream big, pray hard, and think long, you know your time will eventually come. Hilton certainly celebrated the acquisition of his big dream, but he never viewed the Queen as his greatest investment or achievement.

His greatest privilege and potential was kneeling before the King.

That’s what made the Queen possible. The Queen was always subject to the King.

Excerpted with permission from The Circle Maker by Mark Batterson, copyright Mark Batterson. Published by Zondervan

Permanent solution to sea level changes of North American coast line?

Scientists hold out hope for Sponges solving sea level change.

by Tony Hopkins Cousteau   
Staff Writer for Federation of Alternative Research Theories

While many scientists are alarmed at the recent discovery of a mutant variety of large sponge, other scientists are hailing the discovery as a dramatic life-line to civilization in the fight against climate change and rising sea levels.   Dr's. Hannibal Lectorus and Karen Parmagiano, writing in their highly regarded NOAA study say their optimism has come from various locations across the Atlantic Ocean which have discovered large areas of 200 to 300 sq. km with sea level drops of 4 to 17 meters, resulting from proliferation of mutant porifera or more commonly referred to as sponge.

Reports first surfaced from The Nautical Institute which had records of many sea vessels in 1997, reporting sudden drops of 4 to 17 meters in normally calm seas and then a sudden equal rise, or swell, hours later. Most mariners had assumed these were simply high-pressure depressions in the oceans surface until observers began to notice the symmetrical size of the depressions, as though the ship was sailing into a huge bowl in the ocean's surface.     Since studies began in 1999, nearly 4,350 of these depression sea pool pockets have been discovered, mapped and studied in the Atlantic Ocean alone.  Each colony pool is increasing in dimensions by a factor of 12 per year and if not contained, would cover the Atlantic ocean floor in 58 years.  Funding has been held up by for the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA studies indicate these areas, that began to be reported with ever increasing frequency, discovered on the sea floor bed, are actually a large clustering of sponges, that were swollen in size of up to 22 meters each, in diameter per sponge.  The new variety of sponges appear to be related to the Calcareous  variety, in biology except they give off a naturally secreted chemical that appears to ward off their natural predators.   Given their evolved defense capabilities the sponges have been left to grow to mega-abnormal volumes.   Scientists who have hooked the mutant sponges and brought to the surface, have found, although the 1-year-old sponges absorb a moderate volume of 22 liters of sea water, that a increase in life span of one year produces very alarming results.    12 months later, one 2-year-old sponge is capable of soaking up nearly 4,200 liters of sea water sponge, explaining the lower sea levels near and around their breeding grounds.    Scientists have yet to discover the maximum size one sponge is capable of growing, but Dr. Lectorus estimated their life cycle could see them grow to the size of a soccer field in 10 years before they begin to die and loose absorption.   Given their need for large areas to grow, they have found the ability to grow on top, and below, each other and survive in layers up to 1 km thick.    "Their impact of the sea level change seems to drop significantly" Dr. Lumsden said, "with the thickness of the colony on the sea floor, with the thicker colonies tending to squeeze out the absorption capacity of the sponges on the bottom of the colony."

Initially, these depressions posed no large threat to ships or boats of any size.   The National Maritime Institute had simply altered official shipping lanes to avoid the sudden jolt of the boat seeming to drop into a water hole.   In the past three years however, with the discovery of the most recent 2,340 sponge colony water holes, Captain Eddie Fitzgerald of the NMI, says that "there simply cannot be anymore lane changes".   Commercial shipping carriers have been warned and have procedures now to know when they are entering the craters and when they are coming up out of the craters.   Most of the trans-oceanic cruise ships, Captain Fitzgerald says, have simply altered their speeds and voyages to encounter the sink and rise during nighttime hours while guests are sleeping and simply feel the drop or rise as a ocean swell.

The sponge itself is known to be the most primitive of life forms.  Although, they are multi-cellular, they do not normally have any organs, muscles, or nerves.    These new monster mutant varieties though have found to have grown asexual reproductive organs and also lip-like openings, and small appendages of different numbers and locations on their bodies.  Some have what appear to be eyes and others have been found to be capable of a rudimentary form of communication by squeezing themselves dry and then reabsorbing quickly.  This is also alarming to the scientists studying the creatures because of fear that in their abnormal growth they are also evolving into a higher life-form capable of planned regeneration, colonization, or domination.   Already having no natural sea borne predator themselves, marine biologists worry that the mutant itself might begin to turn into a predator of many, already threatened sea life species. Oscar Novrastat, the director of NOAA, said before a congressional study group that this would just be an "unintended, but necessary consequence" and "damn the fish, we've got to save the shoreline".

Some scientists familiar with climate change, and the risk of rising sea levels flooding many shoreline cities, have proposed transplanting small colonies of these mutant sponges in long areas along the eastern and western shorelines of North America as a natural barrier to sea level rises.   It has been estimated that a single colony of only 10 meters in diameter can increase exponentially in size in a short time, and with multiple colonies spaced at intervals of 400 meters and located approximately 2 km off the shoreline, could produce a continuous sponge barrier for the entire North American coastline in as few as 12 years, and subsequently lower the sea level by 4 to 6 meters.      As of today, the only reservation is in not knowing exactly how to contain the sponge expansion in a 2-dimension direction, north and south, without them also expanding east and west.  

written by Tony Hopkins Cousteau,
Oceanodecoder and Worlds' Foremost Expert

related article:  British Petroleum is reported to be studying how to genetically alter these mutant sponges to be oil-absorbent, to be able to transport an entire colony to any oil well blowout to assist in quick clean ups.

other trending news

Johnny Manzel has recently been arrested for assaulting the instructor at his Anger Management Class

Valdimir Putin claims Biden behind Olympic Committee decision to ban Russian track team, and challenges President to a best-of-three Arm Wrestling competition.  Biden declines, saying it would be "un-presidential" and contrary to the philosophy of the Nobel Peace Prize he hopes to receive.

SCOTUS is now considering a change in Justice's robe design to be a part of a more millennial court culture.   Chief Justice Roberts, says in interview that the court has been unable to reach a consensus of plaid prints over paisley designs, and says the other members besides himself, are locked in a 4-4 split and his vote as Chief Justice will decide.  He is presently leaning toward a Scottish Tartan plaid.

Kim Kardashian says father is the finest example, and a role-model for her, of a self-made woman.

The Navy's new Vice Chief. No combat experience?

A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear."
― Marcus Tullius Cicero 

To all you sailors out there, Salute your new Vice Chief of Naval Operations and those from the other branches of services and civilians can bow and shake your heads, for Obama's on the job. Obama's new Admiral Date: April 22, 2016

How does one get 7 rows of ribbons, without any combat?

Admiral Michelle Howard, USN, is not in command of the US Navy; however, she was recently promoted to Vice Chief of Naval Operations, second in command to the CNO.  The selection process leading to her promotion to 4 star rank and her current position, is rather unique in a peace time US Navy.  The supposed plan is to eventually promote her to Chief of Naval Operations.

Admiral Howard had command of only one non-capital ship, the USS Rushmore (LSD-47), when she was promoted to Flag rank, which was unique.  She eventually received orders as the Senior Military Assistant to the Secretary of the Navy, thru January 2009.  It then appears that Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus mentored her thru one senior billet after another, by-passing other highly qualified combat-trained, more senior Flag Officers.  During the process, she received orders to the proper Command and Staff Colleges, in order to prepare her for each new command assignment, Mabus' careful guidance led her to her current billet.

In the last 7 years, Obama has modified the selection process for Flag and General Officer, by ensuring the potential selectee's compliance with his 'Social Experiment On Diversity', as a condition for whether an officer will be considered for promotion to Admiral or General.

Over the last 7 years, Obama has relieved over 250 highly qualified and combat-trained Flag, General, and Senior Officers; some should have been relieved for cause, but many more were doing a superb job when they were summarily relieved.

Respectfully,

Joseph R. John, USNA '62

Capt, USN (Ret)

Chairman, Combat Veterans For Congress PAC

2307 Fenton Parkway, Suite 107-184

San Diego, CA 92108

HERE IT IS – THE US TAX SYSTEM EXPLAINED IN BEER 

Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100...

If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this...

The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.

The fifth would pay $1.

The sixth would pay $3.

The seventh would pay $7..

The eighth would pay $12.

The ninth would pay $18.

The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.

So, that's what they decided to do..

The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve ball. "Since you are all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20". Drinks for the ten men would now cost just $80.

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes. So the new first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men ? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his fair share?

They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer.

So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by a higher percentage the poorer he was, to follow the principle of the tax system they had been using, and he proceeded to work out the amounts he suggested that each should now pay.

And so the fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% saving).

The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33% saving).

The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28% saving).

The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% saving).

The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% saving).

The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% saving).

Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But, once outside the bar, the men began to compare their savings.

"I only got a dollar out of the $20 saving," declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man,"but he got $10!"

"Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man. "I only saved a dollar too.

It's unfair that he got ten times more benefit than me!"

"That's true!" shouted the seventh man. "Why should he get $10 back, when I got only $2? The wealthy get all the breaks!"

"Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison, "we didn't get anything at all. This new tax system exploits the poor!"

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had their beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!

And that, boys and girls, journalists and government ministers, is how our tax system works. The people who already pay the highest taxes will naturally get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas, where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier. 

David R. Kamerschen, Ph.D.      Professor of Economics.

 For those who understand, no explanation is needed.

For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible.