Into the Future

Into The Future...

By Udo Gollub at Messe Berlin, Germany 

I just went to the Singularity University summit.
Here are the key points I gathered.

Rise and Fall: In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they were bankrupt.  What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years  and most people don't see it coming.  

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?   Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975.  The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law.  So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years.  

This will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, self-driving and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.  

Software and operating platforms will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool. They don't own any cars, but they are now the biggest taxi company in the world. 

Airbnb is the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: 

Computers will become exponentially better in understanding the world. 

This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.  

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs because of IBM Watson. So if you are studying law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer generalist lawyers in the future; only specialists will be needed.

You can get legal advice, (for more or less basic stuff), within seconds, with 90% accuracy, compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.

Watson already helps nurses diagnose cancer, four times more accurately than doctors. 

Facebook now has pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. 

By 2030, computers will have become more intelligent than humans. 

Cars: 

In 2018 the first self-driving cars will be offered to the public. 

Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.  

You won't want to own a car anymore. 

You will call a car on your phone; it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.

You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. 

Our kids may never get a driver’s license and may not own a car. 

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for our future needs.  

We can transform former parking spaces into parks.  

At present, 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.  We now have one accident every 100,000 km. With autonomous driving, that will drop to one accident in 10 million km.  That will save a million lives each year.

Electric cars will become mainstream around and after 2020. Cities will be cleaner and much less noisy because all cars will run on electricity, which will become much cheaper.  

Most traditional car companies may become bankrupt by taking the evolutionary approach and just building better cars; while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary approach and build a ‘computer on wheels’.  

I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi. They are terrified that insurance companies will have massive trouble, because without accidents, the insurance will become 100 times cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear. 

Real estate values based on approximates to work-places, schools, etc. will change, because if you can work effectively from anywhere or be productive while you commute, people will move out of cities to live in more rural surroundings.

Solar energy production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but only now is having a big impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil fuel energy. The price for solar will drop so much that almost all coal mining companies will be out of business by 2025.

Water  for all:

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant purified water. We don't have scarce water in most places; we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if everyone can have as much clean water as they want, for virtually no cost.   

Health: 

The Tricorder X  price will be announced this year. A medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that  works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and your breath. It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly all diseases. It will be cheap, so in a few years, everyone on this planet will have access to world class, low cost medicine.  

3D printing: 

The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within last 10 years.  In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started printing 3D shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D-printed in remote airports. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities.  You can then 3D scan your feet and print your own perfect shoe at home. 

In China, they have already 3D-printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D-printed.

Business opportunities:

If you think of a niche you want to enter, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” And if the answer is yes, then work on how you can make that happen sooner. If it doesn't work via your phone, forget the idea.And any idea that was designed for success in the 20th century is probably doomed to fail in the 21st century. 

70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.

Work:

There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear that there will be enough new jobs in such a short time. 

Agriculture: 

There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. 

Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their fields instead of working in them all day. 

Aeroponics and hydroponics will need much less water. 

The first veal produced in a petri dish is now available. It will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018.  Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces are used for rearing cattle. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. It contains more protein than meat.It will be labelled as an “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects – even purified ones).

Apps:

There is already an app called “moodies” which can tell the mood you are in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you (or your ‘friend’, business associate) are lying.  

Currencies:

Many currencies will be abandoned. Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the future default reserve currency.

Longevity:

Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span was 79 years, now it is 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than a one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way beyond 100.

Education:

The cheapest smartphones already sell at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means everyone will have much the same access to world class education. 

Every child can use Khan Academy for everything he needs to learn at schools in First World countries. Further afield, the software has been launched in Indonesia and will be released it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this summer. The English app will be offered free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

WELCOME TO THE FUTURE TODAY!

Little Honest Johnny

My Favorite Animal

Our teacher asked what my favorite animal was, and I said, "Fried chicken."

She said I wasn't funny, but she couldn't have been right, because everyone else laughed.

My parents told me to always tell the truth. I did. Fried chicken is my favorite animal. 

I told my dad what happened and he said my teacher was probably a member of PETA. He said they love animals very much.

I do, too. Especially chicken, pork and beef.

Anyway, my teacher sent me to the principal's office.

I told him what happened, and he laughed, too. Then he told me not to do it again.

The next day in class my teacher asked me what my favorite live animal was. 

I told her it was chicken. She asked me why, so I told her it was because you could make them into fried chicken.

She sent me back to the principal's office.

He laughed, and told me not to do it again.

I don't understand. My parents taught me to be honest, but my teacher doesn’t like it when I am.

Today, my teacher asked me to tell her what famous military person I admired most. 

I told her, "Colonel Sanders."

Guess where I am now… 

The Original North Americans. And we've brought Civilization to the New World?

I am reading a very interesting book entitled
Heretics and Heroes. . .
How Renaissance Artists and Reformation
Priests Created Our World.

I'm at a part right now, where Columbus has discovered the new world, and is writing back to the king and queen of Spain, Ferdinand and Isabella, and describing to them the indigenous people that he has encountered at the islands he has landed on. He wrote,

"They traded with us and gave us everything they had with great Goodwill. They took great delight in pleasing us. They are very gentle, without knowledge of what is evil. Nor do they murder or steal. Your highnesses can believe that in all the world, there can be no better people."

My Question: what on earth happened???? I guess I might ask, figuratively and literally, "what in God's Name have we created?"
Is Civilization the corrupting influence? How is it possible to go from that description to what we have today?

There is left no genetic trace of that people today in the Bahamas. Among the "sporting activities" of the new Spanish arrivals were "baby throwing for headsmashing" (sort of bowling with infants) and also "body slicing" (seeing who could cut a person in half with only one swing of the blade). Both sports, along with others, didn't seem to work out well for population propagation of the natives.

"A man who is warm, cannot feel the pain of a man who is cold"   Alexander Solzhenitsyn

An Open Letter to Colin Kaepernick

By Chris Amos, a retired Norfolk Police Officer wrote the following: An Open Letter to Colin Kaepernick 

Dear Colin, Guess you have been pretty busy these last few days. For the record I don’t think any more or less of you for not standing for the National Anthem. Honestly, I never thought that much about you, or any professional athlete for that matter, to begin with. I’ve read your statement a few times and want you to know I am one of the reasons you are protesting. You see I am a retired police officer that had the misfortune of having to shoot and kill a 19-year-old African American male. And just like you said, I was the recipient of about $3,000 a month while on leave which was a good thing because I had to support a wife and three children under 7-years-old for about 2 months with that money. Things were pretty tight because I couldn’t work part time. Every police officer I’ve ever known has worked part-time to help make ends meet. 

You know Colin the more I think about it the more we seem to have in common. I really pushed myself in rehab to get back on the street, kind of like you do to get back on the field. You probably have had a broken bone or two and some muscle strains and deep bruising that needed a lot of work. I just had to bounce back from a gunshot wound to the chest and thigh. Good thing we both get paid when we are too banged up to “play”, huh? We both also know what it’s like to get blindsided. You by a 280- pound defensive end, ouch! Me, by a couple of rounds fired from a gun about 2 feet away, into my chest and thigh. We also both make our living wearing uniforms, right? You have probably ruined a jersey or two on the field of play. I still have my blood stained shirt that my partner and paramedics literally ripped off my back that cold night in January. Fortunately, like you I was given a new one. Speaking of paramedics aren’t you glad the second we get hurt trainers and doctors are standing by waiting to rush onto the field to scoop us up. I’m thankful they get to you in seconds. It only took them about 10 minutes to get to me. By the grace of God, the artery in my thigh didn’t rupture or else 10 minutes would have been about 9 minutes too late. We also have both experienced the hate and disgust others have just because of those uniforms we wear. I sure am glad for your sake that the folks who wear my uniform are on hand to escort you and those folks that wear your uniform into stadiums in places like Seattle! 

I guess that’s where the similarities end Colin. You entertain for a living, I and almost 800,000 others across this country serve and protect. Are there some bad apples within my profession? Absolutely and they need to be identified and fired or arrested! But you know what, the vast majority do the right thing, the right way, for the right reason. Did I mention that seconds before I was shot, an elderly African American gentleman walking down the sidewalk, turned to my partner and I as we rode past and said, “Get them.” Get who you ask? The thugs terrorizing an otherwise good and decent neighborhood, home to dozens of good, decent African American families trying to raise those families in communities not protected by gates and security guards. No these folks and families depend on America’s Law Enforcement Officers. 

Colin I have buried 7 friends, killed in the line of duty and three others who have committed suicide. I have attended more funerals than I care to remember of neighboring departments who have lost officers in the line of duty, during my career. Law Enforcement Officers with different backgrounds, upbringings, and experiences united by their willingness to answer the call to protect and serve their fellow citizens. 

Colin I am sorry for the endorsement deals you may lose and the dip in jersey sales, but please know you will NEVER lose what these men and women and their families have lost. And so whether you stand or sit during the National Anthem or not means very little to me. As for me and the men and women on whose team I was privileged to serve, we will put on our ballistic vests, badge, and gun, kiss our loved one’s goodbye, for some tragically for the last time, and out into a shift of uncertainty we will go. We will continue to protect and continue to serve and we will be standing at attention Colin, not just for the playing of our National Anthem, but far more importantly for the playing of Taps.